7.17.1: The Paris Agreement

In December of 2015, 196 countries signed the Paris Agreement - a legally binding international treaty to address climate change. This treaty mandates that signatory countries set their own goals to reduce their impact on climate change, while recognizing that low-income countries may need extra funding and support in order to join in climate mitigation efforts to reduce their GHG emissions, as well to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change they are already experiencing. The long-term target of the Paris Agreement is to keep the increase in Earth’s average temperature (compared to pre-industrial levels) well below 2 ℃, while pursuing the target of at or below 1.5 ℃ - since warming below 2℃ will still cause substantial climate change impacts like droughts, floods, and extreme storms. The agreement includes nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by each country; commitments to take economy-wide steps to lower GHG emissions (UNFCCC, 2015). As of the early 2020’s warming is already at 1.2 ℃, yet if all of the long-term targets for GHG emissions the Paris Agreement were implemented in full and on time, it is possible that warming could be kept at or below that dire 2 ℃ mark by 2100 - but unlikely that warming could be kept under 1.5 ℃. To reach this more aggressive goal, signatory countries would have to move up their net zero emissions targets, cut CO₂ emissions by 45% and other GHG emissions substantially by the year 2030, and support other countries in doing so as well (especially low-income countries) (Meinshausen et al., 2022). Unfortunately, the United States is behind on its NDC of lowering GHG emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030, despite positive projections assumed from implementing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) signed into law by President Joseph Biden. In order to close the gap, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could use the Clean Air Act (see below) to set more aggressive standards for lowering pollution across industries, and the federal government could expand funding for forestry and agricultural incentives to promote mitigation and sequestration (removal of GHGs) (Clean Air Task Force, 2023).

The United States has been in and out of the Paris Agreement. It was signed during the Obama Administration, then the first Trump Administration withdrew the US from the agreement, then the Biden Administration rejoined, then the second Trump Administration withdrew. This inconsistency may weaken US influence in future climate-related negotiations. US nonparticipation in the Paris Agreement is projected to slow the world's progress toward the goal of no more than a 2° C. rise in temperature of the overall climate, compared with pre-industrial levels, by taking off the table more than a third of the projected reduction in emissions under the Paris Agreement (Larch & Wanner, 2024).

References

Larch, M., Wanner, J.(2024). The consequences of non-participation in the Paris Agreement. European Economic Review, 163,104699. ISSN 0014-2921, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104699.