7.17: Climate Change Policy

In December of 2015, 196 countries signed the Paris Agreement - a legally binding international treaty to address climate change. This treaty mandates that signatory countries set their own goals to reduce their impact on climate change, while recognizing that low-income countries may need extra funding and support in order to join in climate mitigation efforts to reduce their GHG emissions, as well to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change they are already experiencing. The long-term target of the Paris Agreement is to keep the increase in Earth’s average temperature (compared to pre-industrial levels) well below 2 ℃, while pursuing the target of at or below 1.5 ℃ - since warming below 2℃ will still cause substantial climate change impacts like droughts, floods, and extreme storms. The agreement includes nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by each country; commitments to take economy-wide steps to lower GHG emissions (UNFCCC, 2015). As of the early 2020’s warming is already at 1.2 ℃, yet if all of the long-term targets for GHG emissions the Paris Agreement were implemented in full and on time, it is possible that warming could be kept at or below that dire 2 ℃ mark by 2100 - but unlikely that warming could be kept under 1.5 ℃. To reach this more aggressive goal, signatory countries would have to move up their net zero emissions targets, cut CO₂ emissions by 45% and other GHG emissions substantially by the year 2030, and support other countries in doing so as well (especially low-income countries) (Meinshausen et al., 2022). Unfortunately, the United States is behind on its NDC of lowering GHG emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030, despite positive projections assumed from implementing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) signed into law by President Joseph Biden. In order to close the gap, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could use the Clean Air Act (see below) to set more aggressive standards for lowering pollution across industries, and the federal government could expand funding for forestry and agricultural incentives to promote mitigation and sequestration (removal of GHGs) (Clean Air Task Force, 2023).

Climate Policy in Recent US Policy

In August 2022, Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which was biggest piece of legislation on climate in decades. It invested more money for addressing climate change and reducing carbon emissions than ever before. Here is a 5-minute video explanation from PBS NewsHour from when the law was new. The goal set the US on track for a 40% reduction in emissions.

However, with elections come many changes to policy. The current Trump Administration has been emphasizing investments and incentives for the gas and oil industries, and rollbacks to many of the climate measures in the Inflation Reduction Act (like incentives to buy electric cars). It is too early to measure the impact of these changes, but it seems likely that the 40% reduction in emissions that was forecase in 2022 will not be reached this decade.